INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE OUTLOOK USING AN ECONOMY-WIDE MULTIMARKET MODEL
MODEL STRUCTURE AND LOGIC
• FIRST DEVELOPED BY XINSHEN DIAO IN 2006
• AUGMENTED BY ODJO & BADIANE IN 2014 TO ACCOUNT FOR INTRA-REGIONAL TRADE AND THE ANALYSIS OF MAPUTO COMMITMENT ON TRADE
• A REGIONAL MODEL: COUNTRIES ARE TREATED INDIVIDUALLY BUT ALL COUNTRIES ARE RUN TOGETHER
• AVAILABLE FOR EACH OF THREE RECs: COMESA, ECOWAS AND SADC.
• ECONOMY-WIDE MODEL WITH AGRICULTURAL FOCUS. NONAGRICULTURAL SECTOR IS AGGREGATED INTO INDUSTRY AND SERVICES
• ENDOGENOUS PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE DECISIONS
• TRADABLE GOODS: WORLD PRICES ARE EXOGENOUS AND DOMESTIC PRODUCER AND CONSUMER PRICES ARE FUNCTION OF WORLD PRICES WITH EXOGENOUS MARKETING MARGINS
• NON-TRADED GOOD: DOMESTIC PRICES ARE ENDOGENOUSLY DETERMINED BY MARKET CLEARING CONDITION, WITH MARKETING MARGINS
• A DYNAMIC MODEL: GROWTH IN AREA, YIELDS, POPULATION AND NON-AGRICULTURAL INCOME ARE EXOGENOUS
• MODEL IS SOLVED AS A MIXED COMPLEMENTARITY PROBLEM TO ALLOW FOR SHIFT FROM NON-TRADED STATUS TO IMPORTS OR EXPORTS OF THE DIFFERENT COMMODITIES. […] (see document Under for the suite)
